There are two issues that are most discussed at present in the country. First is how will India take revenge for the Pahalgam terrorist attack? And second is how did the Modi government get ready for the caste census? People are trying to find answers to both the questions in their own way. Caste is the truth of our social fabric. It has been the basis of social relationships in our country. From electoral politics to vote mobilisation, caste has been on the driving seat.
Opposition parties had been demanding the caste based census for long a time. After the Modi government’s announcement of conducting case based census, there is competition among the opposition parties to take credit for it. But the big question is what after this caste based census? Will the benefit of reservation be available on the basis of caste census data? When government jobs are decreasing day by day, where will be benefit of reservation be available? Will the government introduce reservation in private sectors? If vacancy for 10 government posts are out, then which caste will the government give the benefit of reservation to? Will the caste census raise the wall of caste within the Muslim community also? Will the Muslim society, which has been considered united until now, also break up due to the caste census?
How Is The Number Of Castes Rising In Social System?
Has this question ever come to your mind that how many castes are there in India with a huge population of about 1.45 billion? There is also castes within castes. In the census of 1931, a total of 4147 castes were recorded in the country. But in the census of 2011, this number increased to 46.80 lakhs. In such situation, there arises a question whether the number of castes in the country would have crossed 50 or 55 lakhs? After all, how is the number of castes increasing within our social system?
In such situation, the biggest challenge in front of the government will be the Categorisation of Caste. Second challenge will be that people should tell their castes correctly, as the people would want themselves to be in the group where they get some benefits of reservation. For example, in Bihar, the surname Rai is used by Bhumihars and also by the Yadavs, who come under the OBC category. The title Sharma is used by Brahmins and also by the people of particular caste who come under the OBC category. A similar situation exists among the Pahadis, regarding the title Rawat.
‘Jiski jitni Sankhya Bhari, Uski Itni Hissedari‘
A slogan has been raised in India for decades, which is “Jiski jitni Sankhya Bhari, Uski Itni Hissedari.” Socialist Dr. Ram Manohar Lohia experimented in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar to give the backward sections of the society a share in power. This resulted in the backward sections coming to power, but it led to the preparation of ground for caste based politics in the country. But, we have been making estimation based on the data of the caste census of 1931. It is believed that the work of caste census will begin in September this year. In the census of 1931, the number of backward castes was stated to be 52 percent. On this basis, reservation was given on the basis of the recommendations of the Mandal Commission.
63.13% Per Cent OBC In Bihar’s Caste Survey
In the caste survey conducted in Bihar, OBCs were counted as backward and extremely backward classes. According to this, the population falling in the OBC category is 63.13 per cent. The share of OBCs in Telangana is said to be 65 per cent. In most states, the major castes exaggerated their numbers. In such a situation, one thing will get clear from the data of caste census, which is the exact number of castes
But, the next problem will be that most people will be seen struggling to shift themselves to a caste category where there is high possibility of getting reservation. There is another problem in this. When the number of jobs in country is decreasing or only few vacancies are coming out, then how it will be decided which caste in the same category will be given the benefit of reservation? How will it be decided? In such a situation, will the quota culture within the quota increase further?
Pressure On Govt To Mount After Caste Census Data
The BJP will try to take the credit of caste based census in Bihar’s political battle. However, the completion of caste based census is likely to take 1 to 1.5 years. In such situation, by the end of 2026, one can expect the caste census data to come out. After that, there can be assembly elections of Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, where its effect can be seen. As the data comes out, there will be pressure on the government to increase the reservation limit. Not only this, the demand for implementing reservation in private companies can be raised loudly. The side effect of caste census is also sure to be seen on the Muslim community.
What Was The Share Of Muslim Population In 2011 Census?
According to the census of 2011, Muslims had more than 14 percent share in the population of the country. Generally, the Muslim voters are considered united. But, due to the caste based census, it is expected that it might bring out the caste system within the Muslim community. For example, according to the data of the caste survey conducted two years ago in Bihar, out of 17.7 percent Muslims in the state, 4 percent are upper caste Muslims, the rest are Pasmanda and Dalit Muslims. Some castes of Pasmanda Muslims are included in the OBC reservation. In such case, if in the name of reservation, the Muslims are also seen raising a wall in the name of caste, then will it not be surprising?
Power Equations In UP, Bihar Based On ‘Two-and-a-Half Castes’ Formula’
This is also a strange irony that once polarisation of votes in the name of religion was used as a counter to caste politics, i.e. Kamandal in the answer to Mandal. But now with the weakening of polarisation of votes in the name of religion, the path is being widened for cast manipulation. There was a time when the power equation in UP and Bihar was seen in the formula of two and a half castes. In UP, Mulayam Singh Yadav achieved power by adding other castes to the Muslim plus Yadav vote bank, while in Bihar Lalu Yadav also tried the same formula. But, in the era of Modi-Shah, caste politics seemed to be weakening in the wind of Hindutva, along with nationalism and development. The politics turned into rich versus poor.
Why Did BJP Announce Caste Census?
In such situation, the senior leaders of BJP are seen talking about nationalism and development in elections, on the other hand BJP strategists are focusing on balancing caste equations. Perhaps, after the results of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, BJP realised that polarisation in the name of religion is no longer effective. Now, by announcing caste based census, the government has tried to hit two birds with one stone. First, it hijacked the big issue of caste census from the opposition in one go. Second, it has opened doors to move the castes up and down in the reservation category.
What Demands Will Be Raised After Caste Census?
A law has been passed to provide one-third reservation to women in Parliament and Legislative Assemblies. But, how and when will it be implemented? Everyone is waiting for this. The question is also being raised that after the caste census data, will there be a demand to reserve seats for OBCs in Parliament and Legislative Assemblies?
Reservation was initially implemented for 10 years in the Constitution, but instead of ending, it has increased continuously. In many states, the reservation limit has crossed the 50 percent mark. In Karnataka, the Congress’s Siddaramaiah government is preparing to increase OBC reservation from 32 percent to 51 percent. If this happens, the total reservation in Karnataka will become 85 percent. Tamil Nadu has 69 percent reservation and Jharkhand has 77 percent reservation.
Currently, there is provision for reservation in many categories in our country. For example, Scheduled castes, Scheduled Tribes, Other Backward Classes, Economically Weaker Sections etc. In such situation, a big change will be observed in the list of castes included in the reservation category.
New castes can be added and some existing castes can be removed in the reservation category. Secondly, the demand for increasing the quota within quota will also raise.
In such situation, the Central government will prepare the list of OBC, SC and ST in its own way and state governments in their own way. To provide reservation and other government benefits, the caste census data will be cited. In such situation, after the declaration of caste census data, reset button in the electoral politics is set to be pressed; from where, all the political parties can be seen sharpening their strategy afresh.
